Joao Fonseca vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Joao Fonseca 0. Joao Fonseca is favored with a 51.6% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Joao Fonseca
1665
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicJoao Fonseca
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Joao Fonseca
Hamad Medjedovic
Joao Fonseca leads by 161 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Joao Fonseca SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Joao Fonseca ML
-178
Model: 52%
Edge: -12.5%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
+160
Model: 48%
Edge: +10.0%
Model Projection
Hamad Medjedovic ML +160 · +10.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Fonseca holds a commanding 161-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Joao Fonseca 51.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →