Joao Fonseca vs Roberto Bautista Agut prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista Agut 0 - Joao Fonseca 0. Joao Fonseca is favored with a 65.0% win probability.
Roberto Bautista Agut
1485
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Joao Fonseca
1613
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista AgutJoao Fonseca
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Joao Fonseca
Roberto Bautista Agut
Joao Fonseca leads by 128 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Joao Fonseca SPW
69.2%
Above tour avg
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Joao Fonseca has a significant serve advantage (+3.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Joao Fonseca ML
-428
Model: 65%
Edge: -16.0%
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
+358
Model: 35%
Edge: +13.1%
Model Projection
Roberto Bautista Agut ML +358 · +13.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Fonseca holds a commanding 128-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Joao Fonseca has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Joao Fonseca 65.0%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →