Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jacob Fearnley prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jacob Fearnley 0 - Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favored with a 62.6% win probability.
Jacob Fearnley
1469
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1525
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jacob FearnleyJuan Manuel Cerundolo
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Jacob Fearnley
Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads by 56 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
Jacob Fearnley SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
● Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Juan Manuel Cerundolo ML
-365
Model: 63%
Edge: -15.9%
Jacob Fearnley ML
+309
Model: 37%
Edge: +13.0%
Model Projection
Jacob Fearnley ML +309 · +13.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a moderate 56-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 62.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →