Jurij Rodionov vs Borna Gojo prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Borna Gojo 0 - Jurij Rodionov 0. Jurij Rodionov is favored with a 67.7% win probability.
Borna Gojo
1318
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jurij Rodionov
1530
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Borna GojoJurij Rodionov
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (3,723 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jurij Rodionov
Borna Gojo
Jurij Rodionov leads by 212 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jurij Rodionov SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Borna Gojo SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
● Jurij Rodionov has a significant serve advantage (+4.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jurij Rodionov ML
-127
Model: 68%
Edge: +11.8%
Borna Gojo ML
+107
Model: 32%
Edge: -16.0%
Model Projection
Jurij Rodionov ML -127 · +11.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jurij Rodionov holds a commanding 212-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jurij Rodionov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jurij Rodionov at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jurij Rodionov 67.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →