Jurij Rodionov vs Oliver Crawford prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Oliver Crawford 0 - Jurij Rodionov 0. Jurij Rodionov is favored with a 59.3% win probability.
Oliver Crawford
1425
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Jurij Rodionov
1530
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Oliver CrawfordJurij Rodionov
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Jurij Rodionov
Oliver Crawford
Jurij Rodionov leads by 105 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Jurij Rodionov SPW
67.3%
Above tour avg
Oliver Crawford SPW
66.0%
Above tour avg
● Jurij Rodionov has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jurij Rodionov ML
-237
Model: 59%
Edge: -11.0%
Oliver Crawford ML
+198
Model: 41%
Edge: +7.1%
Model Projection
Oliver Crawford ML +198 · +7.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jurij Rodionov holds a commanding 105-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jurij Rodionov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jurij Rodionov 59.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →