Jurij Rodionov vs Remy Bertola prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Remy Bertola 0 - Jurij Rodionov 0. Jurij Rodionov is favored with a 58.4% win probability.
Remy Bertola
1481
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Jurij Rodionov
1530
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Remy BertolaJurij Rodionov
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Jurij Rodionov
Remy Bertola
Jurij Rodionov leads by 49 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Jurij Rodionov SPW
66.3%
Above tour avg
Remy Bertola SPW
65.0%
Above tour avg
● Jurij Rodionov has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jurij Rodionov ML
-233
Model: 58%
Edge: -11.5%
Remy Bertola ML
+191
Model: 42%
Edge: +7.2%
Model Projection
Remy Bertola ML +191 · +7.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jurij Rodionov has a moderate 49-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jurij Rodionov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jurij Rodionov 58.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →