Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 - Kamil Majchrzak 0. Kamil Majchrzak is favored with a 67.3% win probability.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Kamil Majchrzak
1522
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Camilo Ugo CarabelliKamil Majchrzak
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Kamil Majchrzak
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Kamil Majchrzak leads by 24 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Kamil Majchrzak SPW
63.5%
Below tour avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.5%
Below tour avg
● Kamil Majchrzak has a significant serve advantage (+4.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Kamil Majchrzak ML
+170
Model: 67%
Edge: +30.3%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
-210
Model: 33%
Edge: -35.1%
Model Projection
Kamil Majchrzak ML +170 · +30.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (24-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Kamil Majchrzak has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Kamil Majchrzak at 67%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kamil Majchrzak 67.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →