Kamil Majchrzak vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Kamil Majchrzak 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 57.0% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1817
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Kamil Majchrzak
1584
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeKamil Majchrzak
Hard
Surface
ATP Hertogenbosch - QF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (5,105 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hertogenbosch - QF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Kamil Majchrzak
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 233 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Kamil Majchrzak SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
65.4%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Kamil Majchrzak ML
+243
Model: 43%
Edge: +13.9%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-275
Model: 57%
Edge: -16.4%
Model Projection
Kamil Majchrzak ML +243 · +13.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 233-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Kamil Majchrzak has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 57.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →