Karolina Muchova vs Kamilla Rakhimova prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kamilla Rakhimova 0 - Karolina Muchova 0. Karolina Muchova is favored with a 70.4% win probability.
Kamilla Rakhimova
1562
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Karolina Muchova
1731
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Kamilla RakhimovaKarolina Muchova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.3% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Karolina Muchova
Kamilla Rakhimova
Karolina Muchova leads by 168 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Karolina Muchova SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Kamilla Rakhimova SPW
52.6%
Below tour avg
● Karolina Muchova has a significant serve advantage (+4.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Karolina Muchova ML
-1134
Model: 70%
Edge: -21.5%
Kamilla Rakhimova ML
+739
Model: 30%
Edge: +17.7%
Model Projection
Kamilla Rakhimova ML +739 · +17.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Karolina Muchova holds a commanding 168-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Karolina Muchova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Karolina Muchova at 70%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Karolina Muchova 70.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →