Katarzyna Kawa vs Claire Liu prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Claire Liu 0 - Katarzyna Kawa 0. Katarzyna Kawa is favored with a 54.2% win probability.
Claire Liu
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Katarzyna Kawa
1591
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Claire LiuKatarzyna Kawa
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Katarzyna Kawa
Claire Liu
Katarzyna Kawa leads by 43 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Katarzyna Kawa SPW
53.6%
Below tour avg
Claire Liu SPW
52.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Katarzyna Kawa ML
+102
Model: 54%
Edge: +4.7%
Claire Liu ML
-119
Model: 46%
Edge: -8.6%
Key Matchup Factors
- Katarzyna Kawa has a moderate 43-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Katarzyna Kawa has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katarzyna Kawa 54.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →