Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Zakharova prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anastasia Zakharova 0 - Katie Boulter 0. Katie Boulter is favored with a 58.9% win probability.
Anastasia Zakharova
1534
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Katie Boulter
1724
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Anastasia ZakharovaKatie Boulter
Hard
Surface
WTA 125k Paris - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.6% (2,182 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125k Paris - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Katie Boulter
Anastasia Zakharova
Katie Boulter leads by 190 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Katie Boulter SPW
58.4%
Above tour avg
Anastasia Zakharova SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
● Katie Boulter has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Katie Boulter ML
-223
Model: 59%
Edge: -10.1%
Anastasia Zakharova ML
+180
Model: 41%
Edge: +5.4%
Model Projection
Anastasia Zakharova ML +180 · +5.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Katie Boulter holds a commanding 190-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Katie Boulter has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Boulter 58.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →