Katie Swan vs Irina-Camelia Begu prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Irina-Camelia Begu 0 - Katie Swan 0. Katie Swan is favored with a 57.1% win probability.
Irina-Camelia Begu
1496
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Katie Swan
1486
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Irina-Camelia BeguKatie Swan
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Katie Swan
Irina-Camelia Begu
Irina-Camelia Begu leads by 10 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Katie Swan SPW
60.5%
Above tour avg
Irina-Camelia Begu SPW
57.6%
Above tour avg
● Katie Swan has a slight serve edge (+2.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Katie Swan ML
-109
Model: 57%
Edge: +4.9%
Irina-Camelia Begu ML
-107
Model: 43%
Edge: -8.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (10-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Katie Swan has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Swan 57.1%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →