Katie Swan vs Tereza Martincova prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Tereza Martincova 0 - Katie Swan 0. Katie Swan is favored with a 57.7% win probability.
Tereza Martincova
1478
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Katie Swan
1511
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Tereza MartincovaKatie Swan
Hard
Surface
WTA 125k Ilkley
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (4,998 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125k Ilkley
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Katie Swan
Tereza Martincova
Katie Swan leads by 33 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Katie Swan SPW
57.8%
Above tour avg
Tereza Martincova SPW
53.9%
Below tour avg
● Katie Swan has a significant serve advantage (+3.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Katie Swan ML
+107
Model: 58%
Edge: +9.4%
Tereza Martincova ML
-128
Model: 42%
Edge: -13.8%
Model Projection
Katie Swan ML +107 · +9.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (33-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Katie Swan has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Swan 57.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →