Kilian Feldbausch vs Sebastian Ofner prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sebastian Ofner 0 - Kilian Feldbausch 0. Kilian Feldbausch is favored with a 55.6% win probability.
Sebastian Ofner
1357
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Kilian Feldbausch
1557
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Sebastian OfnerKilian Feldbausch
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Kilian Feldbausch
Sebastian Ofner
Kilian Feldbausch leads by 199 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Kilian Feldbausch SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Sebastian Ofner SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
● Kilian Feldbausch has a significant serve advantage (+3.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Kilian Feldbausch ML
+238
Model: 56%
Edge: +26.0%
Sebastian Ofner ML
-296
Model: 44%
Edge: -30.3%
Model Projection
Kilian Feldbausch ML +238 · +26.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Kilian Feldbausch holds a commanding 199-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Kilian Feldbausch has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kilian Feldbausch 55.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →