Kyrian Jacquet vs Felix Gill prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Gill 0 - Kyrian Jacquet 0. Felix Gill is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Felix Gill
1596
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Kyrian Jacquet
1493
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix GillKyrian Jacquet
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Kyrian Jacquet
Felix Gill
Felix Gill leads by 104 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Kyrian Jacquet SPW
58.1%
Below tour avg
Felix Gill SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
● Felix Gill has a significant serve advantage (+4.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Kyrian Jacquet ML
-154
Model: 38%
Edge: -22.2%
Felix Gill ML
+131
Model: 62%
Edge: +18.3%
Model Projection
Felix Gill ML +131 · +18.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill holds a commanding 104-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Felix Gill has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Gill 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →