Leandro Riedi vs Francisco Comesana prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francisco Comesana 0 - Leandro Riedi 0. Leandro Riedi is favored with a 54.7% win probability.
Francisco Comesana
1527
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Leandro Riedi
1544
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Francisco ComesanaLeandro Riedi
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (1,518 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Leandro Riedi
Francisco Comesana
Leandro Riedi leads by 16 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Leandro Riedi SPW
66.1%
Above tour avg
Francisco Comesana SPW
64.0%
Above tour avg
● Leandro Riedi has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Leandro Riedi ML
+151
Model: 55%
Edge: +14.9%
Francisco Comesana ML
-176
Model: 45%
Edge: -18.5%
Model Projection
Leandro Riedi ML +151 · +14.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (16-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Leandro Riedi has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Leandro Riedi 54.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →