Leandro Riedi vs Gianluca Cadenasso prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gianluca Cadenasso 0 - Leandro Riedi 0. Gianluca Cadenasso is favored with a 50.5% win probability.
Gianluca Cadenasso
1487
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Leandro Riedi
1544
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Gianluca CadenassoLeandro Riedi
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Leandro Riedi
Gianluca Cadenasso
Leandro Riedi leads by 57 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Leandro Riedi SPW
59.4%
Below tour avg
Gianluca Cadenasso SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Leandro Riedi ML
-166
Model: 50%
Edge: -12.9%
Gianluca Cadenasso ML
+142
Model: 50%
Edge: +9.1%
Model Projection
Gianluca Cadenasso ML +142 · +9.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Leandro Riedi has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Gianluca Cadenasso has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gianluca Cadenasso 50.5%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →