Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexander Bublik 0 - Learner Tien 0. Alexander Bublik is favored with a 54.3% win probability.
Alexander Bublik
1826
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Learner Tien
1783
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexander BublikLearner Tien
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Learner Tien
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik leads by 44 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Learner Tien SPW
65.3%
Above tour avg
Alexander Bublik SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Learner Tien ML
-138
Model: 46%
Edge: -12.3%
Alexander Bublik ML
+125
Model: 54%
Edge: +9.9%
Model Projection
Alexander Bublik ML +125 · +9.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Bublik has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alexander Bublik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Bublik 54.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →