Learner Tien vs Rafael Jodar prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Learner Tien 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 55.6% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Learner Tien
1580
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarLearner Tien
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,120 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Learner Tien
Rafael Jodar
Learner Tien leads by 32 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Learner Tien SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Learner Tien ML
+315
Model: 44%
Edge: +20.3%
Rafael Jodar ML
-350
Model: 56%
Edge: -22.2%
Model Projection
Learner Tien ML +315 · +20.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (32-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 55.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →