Leolia Jeanjean vs Ekaterine Gorgodze prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ekaterine Gorgodze 0 - Leolia Jeanjean 0. Ekaterine Gorgodze is favored with a 53.0% win probability.
Ekaterine Gorgodze
1489
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Leolia Jeanjean
1486
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Ekaterine GorgodzeLeolia Jeanjean
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Leolia Jeanjean
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Ekaterine Gorgodze leads by 3 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Leolia Jeanjean SPW
54.2%
Below tour avg
Ekaterine Gorgodze SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
● Ekaterine Gorgodze has a slight serve edge (+1.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Leolia Jeanjean ML
-354
Model: 47%
Edge: -31.0%
Ekaterine Gorgodze ML
+279
Model: 53%
Edge: +26.6%
Model Projection
Ekaterine Gorgodze ML +279 · +26.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Ekaterine Gorgodze has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ekaterine Gorgodze 53.0%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →