Liam Draxl vs Ilia Simakin prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ilia Simakin 0 - Liam Draxl 0. Ilia Simakin is favored with a 53.0% win probability.
Ilia Simakin
1586
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Liam Draxl
1464
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ilia SimakinLiam Draxl
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Liam Draxl
Ilia Simakin
Ilia Simakin leads by 122 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Liam Draxl SPW
58.5%
Below tour avg
Ilia Simakin SPW
61.3%
Below tour avg
● Ilia Simakin has a slight serve edge (+2.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Liam Draxl ML
-274
Model: 47%
Edge: -26.3%
Ilia Simakin ML
+222
Model: 53%
Edge: +22.0%
Model Projection
Ilia Simakin ML +222 · +22.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Ilia Simakin holds a commanding 122-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ilia Simakin has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ilia Simakin 53.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →