Lilli Tagger vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 0 - Lilli Tagger 0. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is favored with a 52.7% win probability.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Lilli Tagger
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Jessica Bouzas ManeiroLilli Tagger
Hard
Surface
Parma
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.9% (2,207 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Parma
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Lilli Tagger
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Lilli Tagger leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Lilli Tagger SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SPW
56.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Lilli Tagger ML
+122
Model: 47%
Edge: +2.3%
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro ML
-148
Model: 53%
Edge: -7.0%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52.7%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →