Liudmila Samsonova vs Polina Kudermetova prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Polina Kudermetova 0 - Liudmila Samsonova 0. Liudmila Samsonova is favored with a 62.1% win probability.
Polina Kudermetova
1497
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Liudmila Samsonova
1629
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Polina KudermetovaLiudmila Samsonova
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Liudmila Samsonova
Polina Kudermetova
Liudmila Samsonova leads by 132 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Liudmila Samsonova SPW
59.3%
Above tour avg
Polina Kudermetova SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
● Liudmila Samsonova has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Liudmila Samsonova ML
-206
Model: 62%
Edge: -5.2%
Polina Kudermetova ML
+174
Model: 38%
Edge: +1.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Liudmila Samsonova holds a commanding 132-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Liudmila Samsonova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Liudmila Samsonova 62.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →