Lloyd Harris vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Lloyd Harris 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 54.1% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Lloyd Harris
1497
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoLloyd Harris
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (2,644 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Lloyd Harris
Andrea Pellegrino
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 23 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Lloyd Harris SPW
59.1%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
● Andrea Pellegrino has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Lloyd Harris ML
+164
Model: 46%
Edge: +8.0%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
-198
Model: 54%
Edge: -12.4%
Model Projection
Lloyd Harris ML +164 · +8.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (23-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 54.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →