Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Edas Butvilas 0 - Lorenzo Sonego 0. Lorenzo Sonego is favored with a 58.0% win probability.
Edas Butvilas
1561
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Lorenzo Sonego
1604
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Edas ButvilasLorenzo Sonego
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Lorenzo Sonego
Edas Butvilas
Lorenzo Sonego leads by 43 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Lorenzo Sonego SPW
67.0%
Above tour avg
Edas Butvilas SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Lorenzo Sonego has a significant serve advantage (+3.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Lorenzo Sonego ML
+126
Model: 58%
Edge: +13.8%
Edas Butvilas ML
-141
Model: 42%
Edge: -16.5%
Model Projection
Lorenzo Sonego ML +126 · +13.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Lorenzo Sonego has a moderate 43-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Lorenzo Sonego has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lorenzo Sonego 58.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →