Luca Nardi vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Luca Nardi 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 59.2% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Luca Nardi
1476
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoLuca Nardi
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (1,806 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Luca Nardi
Andrea Pellegrino
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 45 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Luca Nardi SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
● Andrea Pellegrino has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Luca Nardi ML
+710
Model: 41%
Edge: +28.4%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
-770
Model: 59%
Edge: -29.3%
Model Projection
Luca Nardi ML +710 · +28.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino has a moderate 45-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 59.2%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →