Luca Van Assche vs Max Schoenhaus prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Max Schoenhaus 0 - Luca Van Assche 0. Luca Van Assche is favored with a 53.0% win probability.
Max Schoenhaus
1325
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Luca Van Assche
1471
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Max SchoenhausLuca Van Assche
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Luca Van Assche
Max Schoenhaus
Luca Van Assche leads by 145 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Luca Van Assche SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
Max Schoenhaus SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Max Schoenhaus has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Luca Van Assche ML
-297
Model: 53%
Edge: -21.8%
Max Schoenhaus ML
+239
Model: 47%
Edge: +17.5%
Model Projection
Max Schoenhaus ML +239 · +17.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Luca Van Assche holds a commanding 145-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Max Schoenhaus has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Luca Van Assche 53.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →