Lucrezia Stefanini vs Katarzyna Kawa prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Katarzyna Kawa 0 - Lucrezia Stefanini 0. Katarzyna Kawa is favored with a 65.1% win probability.
Katarzyna Kawa
1508
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Lucrezia Stefanini
1493
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Katarzyna KawaLucrezia Stefanini
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Lucrezia Stefanini
Katarzyna Kawa
Katarzyna Kawa leads by 15 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Lucrezia Stefanini SPW
49.0%
Below tour avg
Katarzyna Kawa SPW
53.4%
Below tour avg
● Katarzyna Kawa has a significant serve advantage (+4.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Lucrezia Stefanini ML
+166
Model: 35%
Edge: -2.7%
Katarzyna Kawa ML
-195
Model: 65%
Edge: -1.0%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (15-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Katarzyna Kawa has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Katarzyna Kawa at 65%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katarzyna Kawa 65.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →