Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mary Stoiana 0 - Lulu Sun 0. Lulu Sun is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Mary Stoiana
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Lulu Sun
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Mary StoianaLulu Sun
Hard
Surface
Lexus Ilkley Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (5,105 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Lexus Ilkley Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Lulu Sun
Mary Stoiana
Lulu Sun leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Lulu Sun SPW
58.7%
Above tour avg
Mary Stoiana SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
● Lulu Sun has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Lulu Sun has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lulu Sun 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →