Madison Keys vs Fiona Ferro prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fiona Ferro 0 - Madison Keys 0. Madison Keys is favored with a 61.7% win probability.
Fiona Ferro
1484
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Madison Keys
1751
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Fiona FerroMadison Keys
Hard
Surface
Paris
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Paris
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Madison Keys
Fiona Ferro
Madison Keys leads by 267 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Madison Keys SPW
60.3%
Above tour avg
Fiona Ferro SPW
54.1%
Below tour avg
● Madison Keys has a significant serve advantage (+6.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Madison Keys ML
-600
Model: 62%
Edge: -24.0%
Fiona Ferro ML
+375
Model: 38%
Edge: +17.3%
Model Projection
Fiona Ferro ML +375 · +17.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Madison Keys holds a commanding 267-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Madison Keys has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Madison Keys 61.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →