Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alina Charaeva 0 - Manon Leonard 0. Manon Leonard is favored with a 55.4% win probability.
Alina Charaeva
1446
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Manon Leonard
1612
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alina CharaevaManon Leonard
Hard
Surface
Figueira Da Foz
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (5,344 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Figueira Da Foz
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Manon Leonard
Alina Charaeva
Manon Leonard leads by 167 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Manon Leonard SPW
59.1%
Above tour avg
Alina Charaeva SPW
56.6%
Above tour avg
● Manon Leonard has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Manon Leonard ML
+381
Model: 55%
Edge: +34.6%
Alina Charaeva ML
-506
Model: 45%
Edge: -38.9%
Model Projection
Manon Leonard ML +381 · +34.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Manon Leonard holds a commanding 167-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Manon Leonard has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Manon Leonard 55.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →