Marco Cecchinato vs Max Houkes prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Max Houkes 0 - Marco Cecchinato 0. Max Houkes is favored with a 52.3% win probability.
Max Houkes
1610
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Marco Cecchinato
1634
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Max HoukesMarco Cecchinato
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Marco Cecchinato
Max Houkes
Marco Cecchinato leads by 24 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Marco Cecchinato SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
Max Houkes SPW
61.6%
Below tour avg
● Max Houkes has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marco Cecchinato ML
-185
Model: 48%
Edge: -17.2%
Max Houkes ML
+154
Model: 52%
Edge: +12.9%
Model Projection
Max Houkes ML +154 · +12.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (24-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Max Houkes has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Max Houkes 52.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →