Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mariano Navone 0 - Marco Trungelliti 0. Marco Trungelliti is favored with a 59.9% win probability.
Mariano Navone
1407
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Marco Trungelliti
1463
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Mariano NavoneMarco Trungelliti
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Marco Trungelliti
Mariano Navone
Marco Trungelliti leads by 57 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Marco Trungelliti SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
Mariano Navone SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Marco Trungelliti has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marco Trungelliti ML
+225
Model: 60%
Edge: +29.1%
Mariano Navone ML
-285
Model: 40%
Edge: -33.9%
Model Projection
Marco Trungelliti ML +225 · +29.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marco Trungelliti has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Marco Trungelliti has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marco Trungelliti 59.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →