Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jan Choinski 0 - Marcos Giron 0. Jan Choinski is favored with a 54.3% win probability.
Jan Choinski
1472
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Marcos Giron
1548
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jan ChoinskiMarcos Giron
Grass
Surface
Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (5,978 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Marcos Giron
Jan Choinski
Marcos Giron leads by 75 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Marcos Giron SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
Jan Choinski SPW
67.8%
Above tour avg
● Jan Choinski has a significant serve advantage (+3.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marcos Giron ML
-304
Model: 46%
Edge: -29.6%
Jan Choinski ML
+249
Model: 54%
Edge: +25.7%
Model Projection
Jan Choinski ML +249 · +25.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marcos Giron has a moderate 75-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan Choinski 54.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →