Maria Lourdes Carle vs Rebecca Sramkova prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rebecca Sramkova 0 - Maria Lourdes Carle 0. Rebecca Sramkova is favored with a 51.7% win probability.
Rebecca Sramkova
1669
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Maria Lourdes Carle
1562
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rebecca SramkovaMaria Lourdes Carle
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,723 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Maria Lourdes Carle
Rebecca Sramkova
Rebecca Sramkova leads by 107 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Maria Lourdes Carle SPW
53.4%
Below tour avg
Rebecca Sramkova SPW
52.3%
Below tour avg
● Maria Lourdes Carle has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Maria Lourdes Carle ML
+227
Model: 48%
Edge: +17.7%
Rebecca Sramkova ML
-281
Model: 52%
Edge: -22.0%
Model Projection
Maria Lourdes Carle ML +227 · +17.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rebecca Sramkova holds a commanding 107-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Maria Lourdes Carle has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rebecca Sramkova 51.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →