Maria Lourdes Carle vs Rebecca Sramkova prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rebecca Sramkova 0 - Maria Lourdes Carle 0. Maria Lourdes Carle is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Rebecca Sramkova
1669
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Maria Lourdes Carle
1562
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rebecca SramkovaMaria Lourdes Carle
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Maria Lourdes Carle
Rebecca Sramkova
Rebecca Sramkova leads by 107 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Maria Lourdes Carle SPW
53.4%
Below tour avg
Rebecca Sramkova SPW
52.3%
Below tour avg
● Maria Lourdes Carle has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Maria Lourdes Carle ML
+414
Model: 51%
Edge: +32.0%
Rebecca Sramkova ML
-474
Model: 48%
Edge: -34.0%
Model Projection
Maria Lourdes Carle ML +414 · +32.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rebecca Sramkova holds a commanding 107-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Maria Lourdes Carle has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Maria Lourdes Carle 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →