Mariano Navone vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Mariano Navone 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Mariano Navone
1467
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeMariano Navone
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.8% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mariano Navone
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 183 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Mariano Navone SPW
59.4%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
58.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mariano Navone ML
-205
Model: 49%
Edge: -17.9%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
+200
Model: 51%
Edge: +17.4%
Model Projection
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML +200 · +17.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 183-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mariano Navone has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →