Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaume Munar 0 - Mariano Navone 0. Jaume Munar is favored with a 68.4% win probability.
Jaume Munar
1642
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Mariano Navone
1407
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaume MunarMariano Navone
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (2,860 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Mariano Navone
Jaume Munar
Jaume Munar leads by 235 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Mariano Navone SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
Jaume Munar SPW
66.2%
Above tour avg
● Jaume Munar has a significant serve advantage (+4.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mariano Navone ML
+104
Model: 32%
Edge: -17.4%
Jaume Munar ML
-117
Model: 68%
Edge: +14.5%
Model Projection
Jaume Munar ML -117 · +14.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jaume Munar holds a commanding 235-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jaume Munar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jaume Munar at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaume Munar 68.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →