Mariano Navone vs Marco Trungelliti prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marco Trungelliti 0 - Mariano Navone 0. Marco Trungelliti is favored with a 55.0% win probability.
Marco Trungelliti
1463
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Mariano Navone
1407
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Marco TrungellitiMariano Navone
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,312 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Mariano Navone
Marco Trungelliti
Marco Trungelliti leads by 57 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Mariano Navone SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
Marco Trungelliti SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Marco Trungelliti has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mariano Navone ML
-256
Model: 45%
Edge: -27.0%
Marco Trungelliti ML
+218
Model: 55%
Edge: +23.6%
Model Projection
Marco Trungelliti ML +218 · +23.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marco Trungelliti has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Marco Trungelliti has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marco Trungelliti 55.0%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →