Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mirra Andreeva 0 - Marta Kostyuk 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 75.9% win probability.
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mirra AndreevaMarta Kostyuk
Clay
Surface
WTA Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (1,434 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Marta Kostyuk
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva leads by 127 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Marta Kostyuk SPW
48.5%
Below tour avg
Mirra Andreeva SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a significant serve advantage (+7.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marta Kostyuk ML
+130
Model: 24%
Edge: -19.4%
Mirra Andreeva ML
-145
Model: 76%
Edge: +16.7%
Model Projection
Mirra Andreeva ML -145 · +16.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 127-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Mirra Andreeva at 76%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 75.9%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →