Martin Damm vs Marco Trungelliti prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marco Trungelliti 0 - Martin Damm 0. Martin Damm is favored with a 59.4% win probability.
Marco Trungelliti
1463
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Martin Damm
1491
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Marco TrungellitiMartin Damm
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Martin Damm
Marco Trungelliti
Martin Damm leads by 28 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Martin Damm SPW
66.3%
Above tour avg
Marco Trungelliti SPW
64.8%
Above tour avg
● Martin Damm has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Martin Damm ML
-355
Model: 59%
Edge: -18.6%
Marco Trungelliti ML
+302
Model: 41%
Edge: +15.7%
Model Projection
Marco Trungelliti ML +302 · +15.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (28-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Martin Damm has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Martin Damm 59.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →