Martin Landaluce vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Martin Landaluce 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 65.6% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Martin Landaluce
1392
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicMartin Landaluce
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Martin Landaluce
Hamad Medjedovic
Hamad Medjedovic leads by 112 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Martin Landaluce SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Hamad Medjedovic has a significant serve advantage (+6.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Martin Landaluce ML
+150
Model: 34%
Edge: -5.6%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-161
Model: 66%
Edge: +4.0%
Key Matchup Factors
- Hamad Medjedovic holds a commanding 112-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Hamad Medjedovic at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 65.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →