Mary Stoiana vs Ashlyn Krueger prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ashlyn Krueger 0 - Mary Stoiana 0. Ashlyn Krueger is favored with a 52.7% win probability.
Ashlyn Krueger
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mary Stoiana
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ashlyn KruegerMary Stoiana
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,860 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mary Stoiana
Ashlyn Krueger
Mary Stoiana leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mary Stoiana SPW
54.8%
Below tour avg
Ashlyn Krueger SPW
55.8%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mary Stoiana ML
+200
Model: 47%
Edge: +14.0%
Ashlyn Krueger ML
-245
Model: 53%
Edge: -18.3%
Model Projection
Mary Stoiana ML +200 · +14.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ashlyn Krueger has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ashlyn Krueger 52.7%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →