Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stan Wawrinka 0 - Matteo Berrettini 0. Matteo Berrettini is favored with a 54.1% win probability.
Stan Wawrinka
1460
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Matteo Berrettini
1583
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Stan WawrinkaMatteo Berrettini
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Matteo Berrettini
Stan Wawrinka
Matteo Berrettini leads by 124 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Matteo Berrettini SPW
69.7%
Above tour avg
Stan Wawrinka SPW
65.0%
Above tour avg
● Matteo Berrettini has a significant serve advantage (+4.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Matteo Berrettini ML
-337
Model: 54%
Edge: -23.0%
Stan Wawrinka ML
+287
Model: 46%
Edge: +20.1%
Model Projection
Stan Wawrinka ML +287 · +20.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Matteo Berrettini holds a commanding 124-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Matteo Berrettini has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Matteo Berrettini 54.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →