Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mikhail Kukushkin 0 - Mattia Bellucci 0. Mattia Bellucci is favored with a 60.3% win probability.
Mikhail Kukushkin
1438
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Mattia Bellucci
1483
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Mikhail KukushkinMattia Bellucci
Grass
Surface
Halle
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.4% (5,165 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Halle
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Mattia Bellucci
Mikhail Kukushkin
Mattia Bellucci leads by 45 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Mattia Bellucci SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
Mikhail Kukushkin SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Mattia Bellucci has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mattia Bellucci ML
-365
Model: 60%
Edge: -18.2%
Mikhail Kukushkin ML
+294
Model: 40%
Edge: +14.4%
Model Projection
Mikhail Kukushkin ML +294 · +14.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mattia Bellucci has a moderate 45-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Mattia Bellucci has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mattia Bellucci 60.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →