Mattia Bellucci vs Raphael Collignon prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Mattia Bellucci 0. Mattia Bellucci is favored with a 54.2% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1533
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Mattia Bellucci
1483
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonMattia Bellucci
Grass
Surface
ATP Halle Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.6% (5,865 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Halle Open
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Mattia Bellucci
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon leads by 50 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Mattia Bellucci SPW
65.1%
Above tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
● Mattia Bellucci has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mattia Bellucci ML
+109
Model: 54%
Edge: +6.4%
Raphael Collignon ML
-120
Model: 46%
Edge: -8.8%
Model Projection
Mattia Bellucci ML +109 · +6.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon has a moderate 50-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Mattia Bellucci has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mattia Bellucci 54.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →