Max Schoenhaus vs Yannick Hanfmann prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Yannick Hanfmann 0 - Max Schoenhaus 0. Yannick Hanfmann is favored with a 57.8% win probability.
Yannick Hanfmann
1575
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Max Schoenhaus
1325
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Yannick HanfmannMax Schoenhaus
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Max Schoenhaus
Yannick Hanfmann
Yannick Hanfmann leads by 250 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Max Schoenhaus SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Yannick Hanfmann SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Max Schoenhaus ML
+425
Model: 42%
Edge: +23.1%
Yannick Hanfmann ML
-518
Model: 58%
Edge: -26.0%
Model Projection
Max Schoenhaus ML +425 · +23.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Yannick Hanfmann holds a commanding 250-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Max Schoenhaus has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Yannick Hanfmann 57.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →