Miguel Damas vs James Duckworth prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects James Duckworth 0 - Miguel Damas 0. James Duckworth is favored with a 61.1% win probability.
James Duckworth
1503
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Miguel Damas
1461
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
James DuckworthMiguel Damas
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Miguel Damas
James Duckworth
James Duckworth leads by 42 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Miguel Damas SPW
61.6%
Below tour avg
James Duckworth SPW
64.0%
Above tour avg
● James Duckworth has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Miguel Damas ML
+138
Model: 39%
Edge: -3.1%
James Duckworth ML
-165
Model: 61%
Edge: -1.1%
Key Matchup Factors
- James Duckworth has a moderate 42-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- James Duckworth has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
James Duckworth 61.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →