Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arthur Gea 0 - Mika Petkovic 0. Mika Petkovic is favored with a 50.4% win probability.
Arthur Gea
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Mika Petkovic
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur GeaMika Petkovic
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,277 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mika Petkovic
Arthur Gea
Mika Petkovic leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Mika Petkovic SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Arthur Gea SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mika Petkovic ML
-209
Model: 50%
Edge: -17.2%
Arthur Gea ML
+176
Model: 50%
Edge: +13.3%
Model Projection
Arthur Gea ML +176 · +13.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Gea has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mika Petkovic 50.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →