Miomir Kecmanovic vs Andrey Rublev prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrey Rublev 0 - Miomir Kecmanovic 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 63.9% win probability.
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Miomir Kecmanovic
1437
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrey RublevMiomir Kecmanovic
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (1,901 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Miomir Kecmanovic
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev leads by 238 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Miomir Kecmanovic SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
Andrey Rublev SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a significant serve advantage (+4.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Miomir Kecmanovic ML
+208
Model: 36%
Edge: +3.6%
Andrey Rublev ML
-236
Model: 64%
Edge: -6.3%
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev holds a commanding 238-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 63.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →